Climate Basics Podcast, Ep 6 - Japan's Fossil Fuel Problem
- Greg
- Nov 13, 2025
- 3 min read
Low birth rate
Aging population and LONG life expectancy (world leader)
The aging ratio is steep: the old-age dependency ratio (people 65+ relative to working-age) is projected to reach about 79 % by 2050 (currently is 50%) - Working Better with Age: Japan | OECD
Relies upon FF imports for 83% of their energy needs - Japan - Countries & Regions - IEA
Generating their own electricity is very attractive for Japan
Cabinet Decision Made on the FY2024 Annual Report on Energy (Energy White Paper 2025)
Degrowth
Shrinking cities
smart shrink
compact city
depopulation
As of April 2019, Japan’s population stood at about 120 million. By 2115, it will plunge to about 50 million, according to the medium-variant population projections published by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) in 2017. In other words, over the next century, the Japanese population will shrink by almost 60%, losing the 70 million that it has gained in the century since 1919.
Solar
Offshore wind
Geothermal
Nuclear
Storage
OTEC
Hydrogen - Japan's hydrogen and ammonia policy - overview and key developments (final)_0.pdf
Electricity sector
Total generation (in 2021): 1050 TWh
Generation mix:
natural gas 359 TWh (34%);
coal 322 TWh (31%);
hydro 88.8 TWh (8%);
solar 86.1 TWh (8%);
nuclear 70.8 TWh (7%);
biofuels & waste 53.0 TWh (5%);
oil 39.5 TWh (4%);
wind 9.4 TWh (1%).
Total consumption: 932 TWh
Per capita consumption: c. 7400 kWh
* The fossil fuels used to generate about 70% of Japan's electricity are imported.
Japan needs to import about 90% of its energy requirements.
Its first commercial nuclear power reactor began operating in mid-1966, and nuclear energy has been a national strategic priority since 1973. This came under review following the 2011 Fukushima accident but has been confirmed.
Up until 2011, Japan was generating some 30% of electricity from its reactors and this was expected to increase to at least 40% by 2017. The plan is now for at least 20% by 2030, from a depleted fleet.
14 reactors have restarted. 11 reactors are currently in the process of restart approval.
Japan appears to be post-Peak Energy consumption:
epijJepic2024.pdf - The Electric Power Industry in Japan 2024
1. Electricity Demand and Peak Load (p.32/90)
Japan’s annual electricity demand increased more or less consistently up through the early 2000s, reaching a record high of 959.7 TWh in fiscal 2007. Since then, it has either declined moderately or remained mostly unchanged.
Meanwhile, the real GDP growth rate in fiscal 2022, a year in which social and economic activity began returning to normal levels following the lifting of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, was 1.4% versus the preceding year (for comparison, it was -4.5% in fiscal 2020). Electricity demand8 for fiscal 2022 totaled 866.5 TWh (down 1.7% from previous fiscal year) (see Figure 3.1).
Peak national demand has also remained largely unchanged since fiscal 2011 and the average of the three highest daily loads in fiscal 2022 came to 160.5 GW (down 1.1% from previous fiscal year).
These trends are attributable to several factors, including the slowing of economic growth, improved energy conservation, and demographic decline. More recently, however, growing solar power generation in the residential sector, which is not included in these statistics, also appears to have played a part.
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